Provincial/Local Labour Market Information: part one

The Regional Economic Services Branches Human Resources Development Canada (HRDC)

The Regional Economic Services Branches (RESBs) conduct monitoring and analysis of labour force characteristics, occupational demand and supply conditions, and other labour market issues in their respective regions (i.e., the provinces). Because of regional differences, the focus of RESBs' activities vary and result in distinctive regional data and information products. For example, fishing industry data in Newfoundland will be entirely different from fishing industry data in Saskatchewan.

Almost all regions produce their own version of Job Futures (now Work Futures). The purpose of the Job (Work) Futures publications is to apply the analytical tools and data developed through the Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS) to occupational labour market trends specific to a province. While the content varies among regions, most LMI discussed so far in this book, or that is pertinent to career planning is included:

In using the COPS data, practitioners should remember that the numbers are projections and should be interpreted with caution since no one can say with certainty what the future has in store. Projections are not predictions of what will necessarily happen. Rather, they represent one possible path for occupational requirements.

Another factor that practitioners need to be aware of is that the analysis and reported figures in Job Futures apply to the occupational title that normally represents an entire occupational group. However, a statement that applies to a group may not apply to each individual occupation within the group. For example, if a statement refers to art restorers, it does not necessarily apply to painting restorers, even though they are both a part of the Technicians in the Library, Museum and archival Sciences group.

For more information on how to interpret COPS projections, refer to the examples used and explained in Occupational Forecasting section of Chapter 3.

Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS)

COPS integrates qualitative data from various sources with quantitative Statistics Canada census data. COPS uses this data to generate estimates of job growth based on the external economic environment, the domestic economic environment, fiscal policy, monetary and exchange rate, international trade policy and industrial assumptions.

Here is an example of how COPS puts together economic assumptions and occurrences in the market to form an industrial projection for the pipeline transportation industry. First, statistics gathered show a steady rise in demand for natural gas, both in domestic and U.S. markets. Then, taking into consideration recent events, in this case the moratorium on building nuclear power plants in Ontario and the cancellation of a hydro-electric contract between New York and Quebec, it is assumed the demand will be supplied by natural gas-fired generating plants. This, in conjunction with expected strong gas exports to the U.S. west coast, enables the researchers at COPS to make the prediction that these factors should result in a robust capital investment in the pipeline transportation industry.

But does the robust investment in this industry mean more jobs?

Employment projections in an industry are based on behavioural equations which take into account worker productivity changes, output changes and capital investment. In this case an increase in output would lead to higher levels of employment but the increase of employment would not be a one-to-one match with the output since worker productivity would also rise.

In addition to COPS occupational forecasts, individual RESBs also produce other information products. For example, B.C./Yukon produces the Economic Review; Ontario Region, The Occupational Quarterly, and Manitoba Region publishes High Demand Occupations jointly with Manitoba Education and Training, Labour Market Support Services.